Why AI is Entering The Disruption Phase
Artificial Intelligence is now entering the technology revolution phase. This is about to turn socioeconomic systems into upheaval. This has happened before. What to know.
When Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies began to make significant advances around two decades ago, societies began to talk more earnestly about both its possibilities and dangers. Now, with the rise of Generative AI (GAI) and tools like ChatGPT and DALL-E 2, AI is starting to enter mainstream industry and society. AI is about to become a disruptive, revolutionary technology. Things are about to get very interesting. Why and what does this mean.
Current business models, industrial systems, sociocultural and socioeconomic systems have been in a state of disruption and reinvention since the rise of the internet, perhaps mire than ever before. The technological changes that have been impacting our sociocultural systems over the past 20 years are unprecedented. So much so that is often difficult to comprehend these changes on a global stage.
Just over 20 years ago, British-Venezuelan economist Dr. Carlota Perez, currently Honorary Professor at the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College in London, published a book titled "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital." It would become a groundbreaking work, recognised and around the world and influencing public policy and industries.
She posited and has proven, how revolutionary technologies impact financial markets and also socioeconomic systems. Her insight was that there are five sequences that occur with technological change in society. They are 1) technological revolution, 2) financial bubble, 3) collapse, 4) golden age and 5) political unrest. They vary in length of time, overall societal impact and can overlap in certain ways. I'm summarising.
Artificial Intelligence is now just starting to hit part one of the five sequences; technological revolution. It is GAI and tools like ChatGPT and DALL-E 2 that are the applications of AAI that are kicking off this initial phase. Yes, AI has been around a while but it has largely impacted only certain verticals and succeeded in fits and starts. For most consumers, the most obvious interaction with AI is through voice assistants like Siri, Hey Google or Alexa. Microsoft has dropped Cortana after it failed to find market traction.
It is also important to note that Artificial Intelligence is not a singular technology of its own, it is an umbrella term that covers a number of technologies. These include Natural Language Processing (NLP), Machine Learning (ML), Neural Networks, GAI and others. Sometimes they work alone solving a problem while often they mixed together in various ways. It is GAI such as ChatGPT and DALL-E 2 are the first to have much broader implications and impacts and be more easily observed and understood by business and the general public.
What AI is about to do is disrupt existing, traditional systems by breaking existing principles and best practices in industry, technology, management and social institutions as posited by Dr. Perez. From my perspective as a cultural (digital) anthropologist, focused on how technology impacts sociocultural systems, it also means the phase where a culture decides how, when and where it will adopt Ai as it has other technologies.
Culturally, this is a complex process where societal norms, behaviours and traditions as well as systems of knowledge and politics undergo significant changes as well. Culture is the methodology humans use to survive over top of and to some degree in sync with, genetic evolution.
This is happening with ChatGPT for example, in the cultural element of aesthetics, particularly literature and potentially music. Aesthetics is a cultural element along with social structures, politics, economic systems and kinship systems for example.
ChatGPT is having an immediate impact in the marketing discipline of business. For example, ad agencies and brands employ armies of freelance and staff copywriters and content specialists. ChatGPT can both replace and enhance content generators (writers) work. But it will definitely be used to reduce people costs. Jobs will be lost. Those who survive will be the ones who can figure out how to make ChatGPT work for them. It could be of significant benefit to journalism, if used accordingly. But principles will change, existing systems will change. It has already started.
As AI tools like ChatGPT start to disrupt markets and industries, financial investment will proceed apace. In some sense it already has. OpenAI, the creators of ChatGPT, is already estimated to be worth USD$23 Billion. This is a ridiculous valuation and an example of the bubbles often created with revolutionary technologies. I think we can certainly anticipate a stupid amount of money is going to be thrown at various AI companies in the coming few years. A lot of new wealth will be generated, a lot will also be lost. Just look at blockchain and crypto.
Our sociocultural systems are now starting to truly explore the opportunities and risks of AI as a technology, systems of reciprocity (economics, trade), will also start to explore and many already are. This revolutionary phase of AI comes at a time that we are also seeing significant changes due to other technologies like robotics, genetic engineering and information systems (i.e. internet et al) going through various phases of cultural adoption and adaptation.
So. Sit down. Buckle up. Hold on.