Technology and Population Decline
The world's population is shrinking. We may not have enough people to thrive. This is why technology may well save us.
For a long while, the worry was that the human population would grow well over 12 billion people. Feeding everyone would be tough. Maybe a we’d all eat soya? It was a great trope for science fiction. Except human population is in decline.
With this decline, comes an ageing population, which puts added pressure not just on the economics of affordable healthcare and pensions, but on the potential for growth, managing complex sociocultural systems and more. Some forecasts estimate that by 2064 it will be the first time in centuries that less babies are born than people dying.
The one area seeing growth is Africa, where the population is estimated to double by 2050. India is another, but as India, like other countries who become wealthier and develops, it too will see population declines. We can see this happening in China already.
Central to our survival as a species may well be a number of digital technologies. In this article I’ll look at the population issue and touch on some of the larger concerns and then explore the technologies that may help us survive and thrive.
Technologies have been fundamentally entwined with our ability to survive as a species over thousands of years. From the last ice age to today.
This article is a macro-level view spanning decades and looking back on how we’ve used technologies throughout history. It is sweeping. And terribly brief for such a big think. It means checking our biases and applying some critical, long with second and third order thinking.
Bring on the Dancing Robots
We’re going to need quite a lot of them. Especially in the Global North, the developed world, where populations are declining faster. There just won’t be enough humans to do all the jobs that need to be done. Japan has, for years, been integrating robots into its society.
This will be especially so in healthcare and manufacturing. Already, governments around the world are struggling with funding their healthcare. Privatization will not solve the problem of less humans being available. Robots may fill the job of moving patients around, surgical assistance and in some low-skilled, easily automated roles. It is similar in manufacturing.
The True Value of Artificial Intelligence
The idea that an all powerful Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a lot further off, perhaps not even possible. So the real value of AI tools (remember, there is no singular AI entity) will be in augmenting jobs and activities, not replacing them.
AI tools will be developed to help operate robots much more efficiently and effectively. AI tools will evolve to assist doctors in diagnosis. As they will be used in manufacturing to develop better processes and new materials.
Once this current phase of AI hype is finished (remember the hype of Big Data and how that ended up), the real work of creating AI tools that actually deliver real value will begin and those that have already proven themselves (long before Generative AI) will become valued once again.
Digital Twins: Imitate the World!
While this concept has been around a while, coupled with Machine Learning and similar AI tools, Digital Twins will become more valuable within manufacturing. They’ve proven incredibly important in ship building.
With AI tools, better processing power and improvements in data storage, Digital Twins become more economical. They will be used to create Digital Twins for environmental analysis, climate modelling, surgeries and construction. And other applications, like agriculture. Mostly, they will be used in complex sectors hidden from public view as they aren’t well, that exciting.
Blockchain and Cryptocurrency
There are many very good use cases, proven, for using blockchain. But the technology languishes for now. The market is still figuring out its value and how to make it work. There are still some technical limitations for scaling blockchain. Coupled with AI tools however, it could be very useful to government and large corporate bureaucracies for contract and asset management, reducing the need for humans that won’t be available to do those jobs anyway.
Currently, global financial systems are creaking. In large part because of some countries working to displace the US dollar power. Less money is moving around the world than used to. This is hurting the Global South the most as institutions like the IMF and World Bank struggle against alternative sources like the BRIC countries are offering.
Crypto is in the dead of a bitterly cold tech winter as it suffers under the damages caused by nefarious and dubious con artists and scammers. Eventually, it may mature and become more stable and regulated. It may allow for better movement of money around the world. Bitcoin will only increase in value.
Being More Human With Technology
Much of course, depends on how the global geopolitical tensions and stressors of today play out in the coming years. Until we get to a new form of stability and figure out how to play nicely together again, it will be messy.
We may well see an interesting shift within sociocultural systems as a result of how these technologies begin to play out in a world of less humans. The tech giants of today may become more like utility companies; more regulated and seen as a necessity and not as beloved icons as they were. Already the polish is wearing off for many.
This may well result in a return of the humanities within education systems as we seek to make technologies more human-centric at a societal level. Today, the shiniest and most well funded faculties on university campuses are business and technology schools.
But as capitalism goes through significant changes to the current model and culture pushes for more meaningful human societies, pressures will mount for an exploration of the arts and humanities, the aesthetics of culture.
The end of fossil fuels has started, but shifting away from such systems takes a long time. Too much change, too fast, usually causes a period of societal pushback. Which we are seeing in several countries. One can just look at how corporate culture can be ravaged just by a new CRM (Customer Relationship Management) software. Companies spend huge amounts just to manage change. Now expand that to whole societies. Change is the only constant, yet we dislike it as a species.
Digital tools like AI and better data analytics with more sensors stuck into anything natural we can stick them into are helping us learn about how to live better with our planet. More harmoniously. As part of the system rather than as an exception to the system, which is our current mode of thinking.
The idea of human exceptionalism is coming under fire and it’s not holding up very well. We are using digital tools to learn to speak with other animal species. We are beginning to see fungi in entirely new ways. Especially in ways that serve us and the planet.
These are all monumental things. Hard to get our heads around at times. Each signals vast and fundamental changes. They impact every culture on earth. The fortunate thing is that we have what we’ve not had before; an instantaneous global communication network. And we are social animals.
Always throughout our species history, it has been our ability to communicate, to tell stories and come together, that has saved us. It’s not always easy, but overall, we have always advanced.