Autonomous Vehicles and Culture
Avs aren't doing so well these days. That might be a good thing and it may mean that when they do arrive, they'll succeed.
Long a science fiction trope, self driving cars would usher in an age of never owning a car again, of long drives being filled with naps, watching movies and sipping champagne. Over the last two decades, we clung to this wondrous idea. But now it seems, we may have to wait a while longer.
Cars and trucks are deeply embedded in cultures around the world. They are synonymous with freedom and our very human desire to go puttering about to different places. In some parts of the world, trucks are fancifully decorated, especially India and Pakistan and are works of art to behold. And they offer an economic step ladder for many.
In Western and Asian cultures, fancying up ones car is an important part of social signalling and standing and in some cases, a right of passage for youth. In some ways this idea has become culturally transmitted through generations now. Culture is mutable and ever changing, but sometimes, such changes can take time.
Even if we all woke up tomorrow and every car as self-driving, it doesn’t mean we’d all just shrug and hop in. If that did happen, cultural kickback would likely be quite fierce.
Eventually, we will see AVs become economically viable and the technology will improve. Sensors and cameras will get better, software will evolve. Actual infrastructure will get built. As one who’s been on some pretty wild rides through the interior of Africa and Latin America, a lot more than the car technology will have to improve. Then there’s driving through Canadian winters and freezing rain storms. Avs just aren’t capable yet. Although some makers are working hard to figure it out.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are, perhaps, one of the least culturally controversial technologies, unlike Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics. Various estimates have suggested between 500,000 and 4 million truck driving jobs would be replaced by AVs. Recent research however, suggests that this isn’t so, largely from an economics perspective, not technological. This is logical. That said, the economics of AVs get worse.
Yet truckers do more than just drive trucks. They often have to repair engines, tires and other fiddly bits that like to break. Thus you would need a highly competent, agile and complex problem solving robot to be on board and no robot, nor any type of AI existing today, can replace a human truck operator. That is, at best, decades away.
Even Electric Vehicles are seeing the lustre fade a bit as the technologies aren’t quite matching consumer desires. They will get better, but the infrastructure to support them must too. Along with the cost of batteries. Driving an EV can be a lot of fun. Especially Rivians and Hyundai EVs.
Then there is that whole driving experience. Most people like to drive. Although some shouldn’t. Auto brands have spent billions in advertising telling us how fun their cars are to drive and creating luxury brands as part of our aspirational behaviours. They will have to spend a lot more money again to try and change behaviours, but that rarely works at scale.
Cars and trucks and ownership of them is deeply embedded in our cultures, the aesthetic aspects of culture; film, literature, art, architecture have placed vehicles as inherently tied not just to our sense of self, but community as well. Modern cities are designed around cars, not humans. As AVs advance, will we then build cities around humans?
Some cities, like Paris and parts of London and New York are being re-designed with cars as the new second class citizen. This is promising and helps make the case for AVs. But again, this all takes a long time. In 15 minute cities, people prefer bicycles to cars. There are still more bicycles than cars made every year.
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will arrive someday. Who knows when. Today, shareholder patience is running out, citizen interactions aren’t going so well and the business models remain untested. What we may well be entering is an Autonomous Vehicle winter.
This doesn’t mean it’s, well, the end of the road for AVs. This is a cycle that happens with many technologies. AVs are a platform, they’re made up of a suite of different technologies, the car itself and then all the added scanners, cameras and other devices. They are incredibly complex and also rely on a satellite network and GPS.
What we are discovering is that Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) as an idea is a good one, but the complexity of having AVs in our world is far more than just the vehicle itself. They impact so many aspects of culture from politics and economics to identity and social organisation. For AVs to be successful, we will have to make changes in other parts of our sociocultural systems.
The upside is that we are, albeit slowly, making those changes. redesigning our cities, the shift away from fossil fuels, building stronger infrastructure due to climate change. Rapid advancements in manufacturing and better materials than ever before.
All of these are signals that AVs could be an important part of the transportation aspect of our sociocultural systems. Eventually. Avs also help us imagine cities and towns in exciting new ways, so perhaps it is not just technological headwinds for AVs, but culture hitting the pause button.